Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to ...

Learn to apply Bayes' theorem in financial forecasting for insightful, updated predictions. Enhance decision-making with effectively modeled probabilities.

Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same ...

People with higher intelligence are better at making accurate predictions about their own futures, according to new research published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. The study ...