The Atlantic

As the Search Goes On for the Plane That Disappeared, How Can So Many Flights Take Off and Land Safely Each Day?

Earlier today, I quoted the longtime aviation writer J. Mac McClellan on the one-in-a-billion risk factor to which modern aircraft design is held. Someone familiar with such standards writes in: I'm a ...
Washington Times

Averages unreliable for predictions, author says

The problem with averages, says Sam L. Savage, is that “plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average.” This is the thesis of his new book, “The Flaw of Averages” (John Wiley & Sons Inc., ...
CNBC

Fed could cut rates fewer times than expected as economy keeps growing, according to CNBC survey

The average probability of a soft landing was 52%, up from 47% in the January CNBC Fed survey. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months fell to 32%, down from 39% in January and 63% in ...
Harvard Business School

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
The Conversation

If 1% of COVID‑19 cases result in death, does that mean you have a 1% chance of dying if you catch it? A mathematician explains the difference between a population statistic ...

As of April 2023, about 1% of people who contracted COVID-19 ended up dying. Does that mean you have a 1% chance of dying from COVID-19? The goal of calculating a statistic like case fatality rate is ...